June Top 100 Prospects Update

There’s a new No. 1 prospect in baseball, at least for the time being.

Paul Skenes assumes the top position in today’s massive June update, which includes a dozen new players, significant player movement and fresh skinnies for almost every prospect on the list. Skenes has looked every bit the part of a front-of-the-rotation starter so far since arriving in the big leagues.

He’s far from the only player rising the list. Today’s update featured big jumps for a slew of notable prospects, including familiar faces in the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Twins and White Sox organizations.

It’s also a good update for Cubs and Mariners fans — both systems are now tied for the most Top 100 prospects (seven each) in baseball.

Today’s changes follow a month of extensive conversations with scouts and front office officials throughout the sport. Baseball America subscribers can see the full update below.

Scott Braun, J.J. Cooper and Geoff Pontes dive into today’s Top 100 update in a bonus edition of the Hot Sheet show. Hear why Skenes is now No. 1, plus more insight into some of the changes you see in today’s ranking.

Explaining Why Skenes Jumped To No. 1

As you now know, we have a new No. 1 prospect.

At this point, Paul Skenes’ graduation seems to be a fait accompli. He has currently thrown 22 innings over four starts. At this rate, he’ll need another five or six starts with Pittsburgh to reach the 50.1 innings needed to graduate. So expect to see him exit prospect status right before the All-Star Break.

But to answer the more important question. What made us vault Skenes to No. 1, especially since we’ve written about how difficult it is for a prospect to rank No. 1 on our Top 100 Prospects list?

The simple answer is: if not now, when?

Skenes has pitched like a front-of-the-rotation starter from his first day in the majors. He held the Cubs hitless for six innings while striking out 11 in his second MLB start. He immediately became the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in the majors.

Since his arrival on May 11, he has the fourth-best strikeout rate, the second-best xFIP, a top 15 FIP, top 20 WHIP and top 30 ERA among MLB starters.

He’s shown adaptability, as he’s continued to adjust and add to his arsenal year after year. He now throws his splinker almost as often as his fastball. He didn't even use the pitch at LSU.

Durability is always a concern with any pitcher, but Skenes has demonstrated the ability to work deep into games (especially at LSU) with minimal drop-off in his velocity or quality of his secondaries.

Skenes’ ascent to No. 1 means that Jackson Holliday has slipped to No. 2 on our rankings. While Holliday did have a rough MLB debut and was sent back to Triple-A, his slide has much more to do with Skenes’ climbing to No. 1 rather than Holliday falling. In fact, Holliday remains in poll position to climb back to No. 1 when Skenes graduates. 

Nationals outfielder James Wood is someone who could challenge however, as he continues to impress and show consistent improvement at the plate.

— Written by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper

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