MLB Mock Draft V 4.0: Projecting The Top 39 Picks

We’re in the home stretch as we approach draft day. And as of today, there’s a new No. 1 overall pick in the Baseball America mock draft.

Many scouting departments recently had end-of-season meetings. The fourth-annual draft combine takes place this week. The College World Series is ongoing and college summer leagues are starting to kick off. With some rumblings in the industry starting to happen, it’s time for Mock Draft V 4.0. 

The word of the week for many in the industry is “deals.” 

No, it’s not Black Friday shopping, but teams and agents alike are wondering how different clubs will treat the 2024 slot values in the midst of a muddled top of the class and below-average group overall. There’s an expectation that for many clubs, those factors will lead to lots of under-slot deals in the first round and potentially even inside the top 10 picks. Whether that’s simply teams trying to create leverage among their preferred targets, or a truly miserly approach to their signings, is an open question. 

The 2023 draft—one of the most talented in recent memory—featured 18 under-slot deals among the first 30 picks, compared to just five slot deals and seven over-slot deals. There were six under-slot deals inside the top 10 picks, one slot deal and three over-slot deals. Paul Skenes, the Pirates first overall pick, signed for a record $9.2 million bonus that was still more than $500,000 shy of the $9,721,000 pick value.

The slot values for the 2024 draft have increased 8.7% and the 2024 draft has a 1-1 slot valuation of $10,570,600. In an uncapped amateur acquisition system, all of the top players in the class would be worth more than $10 million, but it also feels unlikely that a player in the 2024 class will break Skenes’ bonus record by upwards of $1.3 million. It feels even more unlikely that three players in this class will sign for more than $9 million (each of the first three picks come with slot values beyond the $9 million mark) after only Skenes and LSU teammate Dylan Crews eclipsed that mark as the top two players in the excellent 2023 draft. They are the only players in draft history to sign for $9 million or more. 

So in today’s mock we’ll explore potential deal-cutting picks that could actually happen on draft day and see what sort of ripple effects they create down the board.

10 Statcast Standouts To Know

Every Monday we dive into Statcast data to identify 10 interesting players or trends from the minors. Sometimes it’s star prospects, other times it’s under-the-radar players popping for the first time. These are not full scouting reports, but can often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out, or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.

Today’s installment headlined by Tigers infielder Jace Jung is a good one. Eli Ben-Porat unveils new charts to enhance the player analysis, plus dives into a…

• Touted Yankees signing with some concerning data

• Rule 5 returnee crushing baseballs

• Player the Dodgers essentially scooped up for free

• Separate breakout Dodgers outfielder

• Below-the-radar Rangers 1B with encouraging data under the hood

Here’s what’s trending at Baseball America…

• RoboScout’s latest level-by-level prospect rankings are here

• Updates and analysis from every College World Series game so far

• 10 candidates for Ohio State’s vacant head coaching position

• The Cape League season is underway. Here’s everything you need to know

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